Did Brazoria County dodge another Hurricane Season?

By John Toth

The  Bulletin

The official hurricane season extends through Nov. 30, but for all practical purposes along the Brazoria County coastline, the major threat typically fizzles out right around this time of year.

It appears we have made it through another summer without a major storm. According to historical weather data, the odds of a major hurricane striking Brazoria County late in the season are slim.

In any given year, the historical odds of a direct hurricane hitting Brazoria County are only about 5% to 10%. With an active El Niño pattern keeping overall Atlantic activity quieter than usual, those chances dropped even lower this season.

On average, there is roughly an 85% chance Brazoria County will avoid a direct hit in a given year, and about a 70% chance it avoids any named storm passing within 50 miles.

That is reassuring, though long-term forecasts always come with caveats. We will know more about next year’s outlook around April or May, but I’ll happily take a 70% chance of staying clear of major storms.

The last major storm to affect our area was Hurricane Beryl on July 8, 2024. Beryl made landfall near Matagorda as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds. Because it crossed inland right along our western border, Brazoria County bore the brunt of its intense eastern eyewall and heavy rain bands.

I monitored Beryl safely from the Austin area. Having spent years storm-chasing during my days at the Houston Chronicle, my current strategy is simple: Evacuate and return once the power grid is restored.

The very first storm I covered for the Chronicle was Hurricane Alicia in 1983, just two months after being hired. The morning after it struck, I persuaded then-Surfside Marshal Phil Pesses at the top of the old Surfside Bridge to let me pass and inspect the damage.

After he finally relented, he cautioned me to watch out for snakes, pointing to a dead rattlesnake, right next to his boots.

That self-initiated effort resulted in my first bylined front-page story for the paper. I also got credit for the photo I snapped while doing an interview with a family whose mobile home was destroyed. It also ran on Page 1.

My efforts paid off and established the way I worked these types of stories: I always tried to come up with something unique and above expectations.

While those days are over for me, there is plenty of room at the table for some young, ambitious reporter to do the same. There were many storms that affected Brazoria County before I got here, and there are plenty more coming –  not for a while, though, I hope.

Brazoria County has a long history with tropical weather. Since official Atlantic tracking began in 1851, 14 hurricanes have made direct landfall along our coastline between the San Bernard River and San Luis Pass. In total, more than 55 named tropical cyclones have passed within 50 miles of the county.

As cooler fall temperatures arrive and holiday planning begins, we can be grateful that Mother Nature spared us this season. Let’s cross our fingers for similar luck next year.

Do you have hurricane or storm stories from Brazoria County to share? Send them to john.bulletin@gmail.com, and we may feature them in an upcoming issue.